Dirty Tanker Supply at a Glance: May 2015
May 28, 2015
In the 2015-2019 Tanker Market Outlook published in January, McQuilling Services projected that 67 crude newbuildings would deliver to the trading fleet, while 31 dirty ships would exit the fleet via demolition or conversion in 2015. Based on this forecast, we would have expected that through May, 28 ships would have delivered to the trading fleet and 13 would have been sold for demolition or conversion.
Actual figures show that deliveries are lagging behind our initial forecast as 20 ships have been delivered, compared to our year-to-date expectation of 28. Exit activity is also slightly behind our year-to-date expectation of 13 as eight exits were recorded.
So, how active has each vessel sector been?
VLCC
Newbuilding deliveries are lagging behind year-to-date expectations as six vessels have hit the water through May versus our expectation of 13. Exit activity has also not been as active as expected as just four ships have been sold for conversion or to the breakers.
SUEZMAX
We’ve seen the opposite situation for the Suezmax tankers. Newbuilding deliveries, which stood at eight at the end of May, have almost doubled our year-to-date expectations. Meanwhile, we have not recorded any tanker exits, while we would have expected at least two two have been sold for demolition or conversion so far this year.
AFRAMAX
Year-to-date there have been six Aframax tankers sent to the breakers versus our expectation of 11. Demolition activity is much slower than it has been in recent years and just two vessels have been sent to the breakers.
PANAMAX
With no Panamax newbuilding orders placed over the past couple of years, it’s no surprise that there have been no deliveries. The size of the trading fleet continues to shrink and two vessels were sold for demolition through May.
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