McQuilling Forecast Performance
Oct. 12, 2017
Through the first nine months of 2017, our forecast performance when measured by the deviation from actual levels is tracking within 5.0% for the 12 DPP trades and 0.02% for the seven CPP trades in our Tanker Market Outlook. When compared to our front month forecasts from last month’s Short Term Outlook, we forecast September’s rates within 13% of actual market levels. Finally, in January, we project monthly rates given our proprietary model of seasonality behavior. For September, our January projections tracked within <0.1% of actual levels.
Order a copy of McQuilling Services 2017 Mid-Year Tanker Market Update
The Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update provides an outlook for spot market freight rates and TCE revenues for 19 major tanker trades, including two triangulated trades, across eight vessel classes for the second half of 2017 and the remaining four years of the forecast period to 2021. We revisit our forecasting process at the mid-year point, distilling data from the first half of the year to better understand recent market developments and expectations for the future. In our view, this process allows us to accurately adjust our forecasts and provide additional value to our clients.
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