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2021-2025 Tanker Market Outlook
McQuilling Services' 2021-2025 Tanker Market Outlook represents our 24th forecasting cycle since we began forecasting tanker freight rates.
Our approach to forecasting is based on the development of models that combine analytical processes with practical market assessments. Over time, this approach has been found to be reasonably predictive of future spot market freight levels in the various tanker sectors.
With each publication of our annual outlook, we continue to incorporate enhancements to our forecasts. This year is no exception, making significant enhancements to our research activities, quantitative methodology and visual presentation in the 2021-2025 Tanker Market Outlook.
The 2021-2025 Tanker Market Outlook brings new enhancements and methodologies, further expanding McQuilling Services' use of remotely-sensed datasets, augmented with our industry-leading fundamental analysis to derive reliable predictors of freight rate behavior.
Our demand-side modeling successfully combined real-time voyage information with our in-house bilateral country trade data, increase transparency of region-to-region ton-mile demand trends. Our supply side variables used in our forecasting process have been further conditioned to include the impacts from dry-docking activities, but also real-time inclusion/exclusion of vessels under sanctions. The results of these and other enhancements were highly correlated utilization-to-earnings profiles, forming the foundation for McQuilling's forecasts in the 2021-2025 Tanker Market Outlook.
This year’s report also features pointed commentary on our view for floating storage unwinding, anticipated demand normalization following the COVID-19 disruptions and decarbonization efforts in the context of the IMO regulatory framework. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis is provided on the directional trends of US Crude Exports during this uncertain time, while discussing the impact of rising Atlantic Basin crude oil supply from Norway and Brazil. This is augmented with our projected decline in West Africa crude oil exports from the forthcoming mega-refinery, which will also have impacts on product trade flows. Finally, we discuss geopolitical issues related to the OPEC+ alliance, as well as the impact from the change in US policy under a Biden Administration.
With these enhancements, and more, along with pointed analysis at vibrant factors shaping the markets, our backbone of deep-dive fundamental analysis is truly unmatched the industry, providing our clients with a quantified interpretation of the tanker industry over the forecast period.
Global Outlook Themes
Oil Supply and Demand Outlook
Tanker Tonnage Demand and Supply
Tanker Market Technicals
2020 Market Performance
Bunker Price Development
Freight Market Outlook
Asset Market Outlook
Over 200 Figures/Tables