The Rise and Fall of West African Crude
Looking at the greater West African region, crude supply is forecast to post gains through 2019, rising to 4.8 million b/d before declining a total 225,000 b/d through 2022 due to underinvestment in aging oil fields of Nigeria and Angola. As indicated in our 2018 Mid-Year Update to the Tanker Market Outlook, ton-mile demand for DPP tankers out of West Africa is expected to face pressure on the back end of our forecast period. We project ton-mile demand for VLCCs to the East rising 8% in 2019 as compared to 2017 levels before declining by 1.5% over the period 2019-2022.
2018 Mid-Year Update
- Global Economic Outlook
- Oil Supply and Demand Outlook
- Tanker Tonnage Demand and Supply
- Tanker Market Technicals
- Asset Market Review and Outlook
- Year-to-Date 2018 Market Activity
- McQuilling Forecast Performance
- Short-Term Outlook 2H 2018
- 2018-2022 Outlook Update
- Analytical Appendix
*New McQ TV Available*
McQuilling Services expresses observations through the first quarter of 2018 regarding vessel demand and supply with focus on recent activity in the VLCC scrap market. Many of the demand trends observed in the second half of 2017 are continuing this year as explained in this episode. For the balance of the year, the group expects the majority of tanker fleets to continue expanding, while the recent growth in newbuild contracts may pose additional risk to oversupply down the road.
2018 Offshore Floating Systems Snapshot
*New Industry Note*
Download McQuilling Services 2018 Offshore Floating Systems Snapshot for a quick look at the age profile of the offshore floating fleet, size distribution, major deployment locations as well as newbuildings under construction and vessels undergoing conversion.