Conor Stone of McQuilling Services shares the group’s views on the recent development of the OPEC/non-OPEC Production Agreement in the context of upcoming US sanctions on Iran. Global trade flows to the East are likely to adapt to the new geopolitical environment as Iran volumes are replaced by producers in the Middle East and the Atlantic Basin. From a vessel supply perspective, we are likely to see an impact from increased Iranian floating storage next year.
Are Markets Rebalancing?
April 25, 2018
McQuilling Services expresses observations through the first quarter of 2018 regarding vessel demand and supply with focus on recent activity in the VLCC scrap market. Many of the demand trends observed in the second half of 2017 are continuing this year as explained in this episode. For the balance of the year, the group expects the majority of tanker fleets to continue expanding, while the recent growth in newbuild contracts may pose additional risk to oversupply down the road.
Supply Side Dynamics
Dec. 14, 2017
We have witnessed a considerable expansion of the tanker fleet this year with net growth through October 2017 of 79 DPP tankers and 48 CPP vessels. The fleet is expected to expand further through the remainder of the year; however, as we move into the 2018/2019 period we begin to see a slight shift in fundamentals as discussed in our latest episode of McQuilling TV.
McQuilling Services' Short-Term Outlook
Oct. 20, 2017
For the upcoming winter season, we expect VLCC rates to follow the traditional seasonal uptick we typically observe during this time of the year; however, the magnitude in which rates rise is likely to be lower than previous years. For the Suezmax sector, we expect demand support out of the Black Sea amid higher crude supply as well as on some short-haul voyages into Europe such as TD20.
Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update
Sept. 7, 2017
VLCC demand along the AG>West trade is likely to remain subdued over the remainder of the year amid OPEC-led production cuts in the Middle East as well as higher crude supply in the US. Regarding Arabian Gulf volumes to the East, we expect ton-mile demand growth of about 1.6% this year, while Atlantic Basin volumes to the East will remained supported by higher US crude exports on the back of favorable WTI pricing.