McQuilling Services provides a summary of key market indicators reflecting past performance and future expectations in an easy to read scorecard format. This document displays a snapshot view of what to expect over the next year in comparison to previous market performance.
McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the release of the 2019-2023 Tanker Market Outlook. This 200-page report provides a five-year spot and time charter equivalent (TCE) outlook for eight vessel classes across 24 benchmark tanker trades, plus four triangulated trades. Also included in the report is a robust five-year asset price outlook as well as a one and three-year time charter rate forecast through 2023. With 22 cycles of tanker rate forecasting expertise, McQuilling Services is a leader in the industry and continues to support a variety of stakeholders in the energy, maritime and financial services industries with its annual Tanker Market Outlook. In this Industry note, we illustrate some of our key findings and enhancements to the report.
In the midst of a tanker market down-cycle, pressured by over-ordering in prior years, DPP freight rates have surged to the highest levels observed since the winter season of 2016/17. Spot rates on the VLCC TD3C trade began September in the low WS 50s before gradually trading up towards WS 60.5 towards the conclusion of the month. Through the first half of October, the market surged to the WS 80s, peaking as high as WS 88. Many market participants will look to this as sign of a cyclical reversal; however, we view this as a temporary shock to the market influenced by various underlying dynamics.
As we approach one of the most impactful marine environmental regulations in history, leaders of the shipping community have addressed the International Maritime Organization (IMO) with a proposal for a more gradual introduction of the 2020 0.5% sulphur emissions limit. Although this is an unprecedented event, we can draw parallels with methods used by the California Air Resource Board (CARB) to enforce ECA regulations. In this note, we discuss the historical context of the IMO’s progression on environmental issues, the current outlook for the 0.5% regulation and parallels between shipowners’ position and methods used by the CARB, which may act as a template for smoother implementation.