McQuilling Services provides a summary of key market indicators found in the 2018-2022 Tanker Market Outlook, reflecting past performance and future expectations in an easy to read scorecard format. This document displays a snapshot view of what to expect over the next year in comparison to previous market performance.
Our overall forecast performance for 2017 was within 6.4% of actual market freight rates across the 19 trades that were monitored in the 2017 Outlook. This was achieved throughout a year that could be characterized by significant tanker oversupply, geopolitical tensions and evolving oil market fundamentals. This metric is a measure of the absolute average of the total variation on a trade-by-trade basis, regardless of whether we overcast or undercast the market on each trade. In other words, it is a measure of how close we came, on average, to the actual spot market rates observed on each trade.
McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the release of its 2018-2022 Tanker Market Outlook. This 200-page report provides a five-year spot and time charter equivalent (TCE) outlook for eight vessel classes across 23 benchmark tanker trades, plus four triangulated trades. Also included in the report is a robust five-year asset price outlook as well as a one and three-year time charter forecast through 2022. With 21 years of tanker rate forecasting expertise, McQuilling Services is a leader in the industry and continues to support a variety of stakeholders in the energy, maritime and financial services industries with its annual Tanker Market Outlook.
The European refining sector over performed expectations this year as regional crude supply rose on the back of higher output in major producing nations, pressuring feedstock costs for refiners and supporting margins. According to JBC Energy, it is estimated that the European region (Northern Europe + Mediterranean) will produce 22.9 million b/d of refined products in 2017, while demanding 20.9 million b/d, which would imply an 182,000 b/d rise in product balances year-on-year, basis 20.7 million b/d demand and 22.5 million b/d supply in 2016.