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Industry Note No. 7 - In Search of the Golden Cross pdf

The term “Golden Cross” is used by financial investors to interpret a point in time whereby a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term average. There is no specific definition on which averages to use. A common example would be the 50-day moving average of a stock price crossing over the 200-day moving average. When the cross-over occurs, a bullish technical signal is formed which may foreshadow a rise in the value of the stock’s price. The science is not perfect; however, and head-fakes often times disrupt the theoretical value of this phenomenon. In relation to the tanker markets, we distance ourselves somewhat from the traditional definition of a Golden Cross in that we do not use short-term and long-term moving average cross-overs as our defining variables. Instead, we utilize short and long-term time charter rates and more specifically, the 1-YR and 3-YR rates to complete the cross-over. Observing historical data, we note that when the 1-YR time charter rate is greater than the 3-YR rate, the earnings environment, measured by the spot market TCEs, is firm.