The sequence of events beginning with the US sanctions on COSCO, their eventual waiver, Coronavirus demand implications and most recently the collapse of OPEC+ has undoubtedly created the most volatile freight markets in recent history. In this note, our objective is to assess the impact on VLCC tanker fundamentals and freight rates from the reported increase in Middle East crude oil supply, primarily from Saudi Arabia, against what continues to be a weak demand environment from a slowing global economy compounded with pressures related to the Coronavirus.
McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the release of the 2020-2024 Tanker Market Outlook, which represents our 23rd forecasting cycle since beginning this activity. This 185-page report provides a detailed analysis of oil fundamentals, global economic and geopolitical context in addition to tanker demand and supply projections across eight vessel classes. The interaction of tanker demand and vessel supply variables is processed using advanced quantitative modeling to produce a five-year spot and time charter equivalent (TCE) forecast for eight vessel classes across 24 benchmark tanker trades, plus four triangulated trades. Also included in the report is a robust five-year asset price outlook as well as a one- and three-year-time charter rate forecast through 2024.