In the January 2022 Tanker Market Outlook, we expanded our analytical coverage of the gas market by looking into the LPG market fundamentals and generated our first earning outlook for VLGC carriers. Given the recent geo-political events and energy crunch, we have updated our statistical forecasting models for VLGC demand, supply and future earnings.
After a 10.8% annual growth captured in 2021, the LPG carrier demand measured by ton-mile is expected to increase again by 11.2% in 2022 and over 5% per annum for the next five years. One of the main drivers for this bullish story could ...
A Firm US Gulf Story
July 22, 2022
The Atlantic Basin market has again become the main driver of the bullish sentiment this past week, especially for VLCCs. According to our proprietary commercial fixture tracking, we counted a total of 21 Eastbound VLCC cargoes and 10 loadings to Europe in the month of July, significantly higher than 16 Eastbound and 6 Europe-bound cargoes a month ago. The active VLCC fixings in the US Gulf pushed rates higher for both Eastbound and Europe-bound routes. The benchmark TD22 (VLCC USG/China) freight rates opened the week at US $7.2 million and now reported last done at US $7.45 ...
LR2 Fleet Development Updates
July 15, 2022
The cumulative net fleet growth for the LR2 sector in 2022 is expected to come at negative 5, as a result of a number of factors that are affecting ship supply in the sector, both fundamental and structural.
Deliveries for the year are limited to an expected 17, significantly less than the average of 25 per year seen in the last decade. On the deletion side, we have counted 4 LR2s so far in the year and expect this number to double by December (Figure 1). This relative “discipline” of LR2 tanker owners is partially responsible for the much better ...
VLCC Fleet Development Updates
July 8, 2022
The cumulative net fleet growth for the VLCC sector in 2022 is expected to reach 19 vessels according to our latest data revisions (Figure 1). For the past month, we saw a net increase of 6 vessels, including 4 that have returned from floating storage operations. We do not expect any significant structural shifts owing to floating storage operations (or even a surge in drydocking) for the balance of the year, especially if we consider that the crude oil market remains backwardated, thus there is little incentive to build up stocks.