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Refinery Capacity Developments & Tanker Demand Impact

Nov. 19, 2021

One characteristic of the current year is that global refining capacity is shrinking by close to 638,000 b/d according to the latest data from JBC Energy (Figure 1).  We have observed closures and conversions increasing since 2020, with the bulk of the reductions transpiring in Northern Europe as the region is intensifying its decarbonization push and the move away from fossil fuels.  A similar story is developing in North America, this time around the US West Coast where refinery consolidations and conversions to biofuels production facilities have also become prominent this year.

Going forward, we note the division ...

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Demand Revisions: Will They Support a Crude Tanker Recovery?

Nov. 12, 2021

Revisions on global supply, demand and the resulting balance have been the norm lately given the uncertainties brought by the ongoing pandemic and pockets of resurging infections (especially in Europe), the global supply chain bottlenecks as well as inflationary pressures and the possible fiscal responses from governments and central banks.

OPEC and allies decided to stick to the 400,000 b/d monthly supply increase in their November meeting, while a few days later the organization revised its 2021 oil demand forecast down by 160,000 b/d to a total of 5.7 million b/d.  Despite that, JBC ...

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MR Activity into E.C. South America

Nov. 5, 2021

In the past week or so we have seen increased activity in the USG on the MR2 sector and as a result freight rates have quickly reached yearly highs.  One particular trade of interest is to the East Coast of South America, a trade that we have been highlighting in our recent Tanker Market Outlooks due to its potential for growth both in the short and medium term.  In fact, the TC20 USG to South Brazil route has seen a sizeable freight increase from WS 122.5 in the beginning of last week to WS 190 today.

Demand for clean ...

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