Our analysis of remotely-sensed vessel position data captured only a small (+0.3%) rise in daily Suezmax demand in September versus August, but up 8.5% from the same month last year. Demand is projected to increase in October and November, likely placing some modest upward momentum in freight rates. Similar to the VLCC segment, a supply of tonnage has outpaced demand growth. As of the end of September, we calculated a 10.6% rise in Suezmax supply from year-ago levels, outpacing demand and reducing utilization to just 60.7% last month, the lowest rate since October 2015, highlighting the ...
McQuilling Forecast Performance
Oct. 12, 2017
Through the first nine months of 2017, our forecast performance when measured by the deviation from actual levels is tracking within 5.0% for the 12 DPP trades and 0.02% for the seven CPP trades in our Tanker Market Outlook. When compared to our front month forecasts from last month’s Short Term Outlook, we forecast September’s rates within 13% of actual market levels. Finally, in January, we project monthly rates given our proprietary model of seasonality behavior. For September, our January projections tracked within <0.1% of actual levels.
Politics and Pipelines
Oct. 10, 2017
Tensions in the Middle East have risen in recent weeks as the September 25 referendum in the Kurdistan region of Iraq received about 70% of registered voters and concluded with an overwhelming “yes” for independence. Immediately following the event, a curfew was established in Kirkuk and the Iraqi government considered sending troops into the area. While the use of military force has yet to be realized, Turkey is considering shutting Kurdish access to the pipeline to Ceyhan. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) stopped reporting its crude volumes; however, Iraqi volumes exported through the pipeline equated to about 550,000 b ...