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Debt Ceiling Scenario Analysis

May 19, 2023

There continues to be a deep divide in the US Congress over the debt ceiling and federal spending, prompting worries that lawmakers may not be able to raise the limit in time to avoid a possible default on debt payments.  Democrats want the debt ceiling to be raised without conditions attached while Republicans demand spending cuts as a condition for raising the limit and want to start negotiations in the White House. The US Congress limits how much money the government can borrow and once that limit is reached, lawmakers must raise or suspend the ceiling before the Treasury Department ...

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NB Tanker Orderbook – Demand Support

May 12, 2023

The previous two years have witnessed a significant slow-down in new tanker contracting by historical standards.  This is largely due to rising new build prices paired with above average lead times for vessel delivery resulting from tight shipyard capacity (LNG/container orders).  In fact, these two variables along with inflation and interest rates are the driving influences in our newbuild pricing model.  As such, we monitor the direction of steel prices and changes to yard capacity regularly to provide visibility on the direction of yard prices. 

Following a major lull in owner contracting, the beginning of the year has witnessed ...

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China’s Crude Balance – Support for VLCC

May 5, 2023

Much attention has been paid to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China and the implications this may have for their economic growth and subsequent oil demand in the country.  The deficit for China’s crude balance is forecast to deepen, reaching -11.7 million b/d in August.  Although a widening crude deficit generally results in higher imports, the situation could be more complicated for China as the country has significantly built up its inventory levels during the COVID-19 period.  Comparing China’s net crude imports (JODI Oil) and crude balance (Kpler), we have observed a large gap between ...

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