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US Crude Export Scenarios - Updates

Oct. 30, 2020

Given the US is the largest crude oil producer in the world, it is worth taking a closer look at the potential scenarios that can develop for the region and its exports.  We have touched on this subject a few months ago and we always like to take a fresh look and approach and data is refreshed and updated.   As with other aspects of the crude markets, we like to focus on the crude balances as it has been demonstrated that they remain a main driving force of exports and imports in a region.

Looking at a high-level picture of ...

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A Short Outlook on Refining

Oct. 23, 2020

The story of the interaction between oil supply and demand is, of course, closely related to the future of the refining sector.  In 2019 and 2020, we saw the most significant refinery capacity expansion in the Far East and Southeast Asia regions (Figure 1).  It is worth noting that contrary to the production side, refining additions are usually projects that have begun some time ago, so their completion time was not likely to be affected much by the global pandemic. 

Back to the Far East and SE Asia, we have already seen the additional capacity playing its role in supporting ...

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A “Mild” Winter for the Tanker Market

Oct. 16, 2020

If there is one thing in the tanker markets that all analysts can agree on, that is its seasonal nature.  Despite various events that may be affecting the market one way or another, there is a certain cyclicality to be observed every year, one that culminates in a typically firmer winter market.

That, of course, along with myriad other things we used to take for granted has come to be upended by a global pandemic that began in the Far East in the last months of 2019 and has since expanded the globe, bringing unprecedented economic pressures in almost all ...

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Cargo Switchovers and the CPP Market

Oct. 9, 2020

Last week we discussed if the DPP tanker market has reached the bottom, with a fixture done at single WS digits -something that even the most seasoned brokers have a hard time recalling ever happening.  This week we want to highlight a more specific trend in the CPP sector, that of cargo switchovers.

Throughout this time of depressed freight rates, we have been talking about some opportunities in the CPP sector, such as the emerging naphtha trade from West to East.  By analyzing product balances, we are confident that the trade has the potential to continue, showing limited support in ...

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Is it the Bottom Yet?

Oct. 2, 2020

Over the last couple of months, the DPP market has gone through a tremendous downward correction, as we have to consistently adjust the Y-axis of our charts in order to display the spot market freight rates.  Just when we are wondering whether we have reached the bottom and hoping for the normal “winter market” for the 4th quarter, the Suezmax tanker, Nissos Sifnos, is reported to have been fixed at WS 9 for Basrah Oil Terminal / Mediterranean. 

Although this vessel happens to be a newbuild tonnage which typically fix at a lower-than-market level, this reported fixture has well-demonstrated the ...

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