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India Demand Implications

May 14, 2021

India is the world’s third largest crude oil importer and it has been on the news lately due to a massive surge in COVID-19 infections that brought renewed movement restrictions and measures in an effort to address the problem.  For this week, we are going to look at some of the headline numbers for crude demand in the country and explore some possible scenarios for the near-term.

The new coronavirus crisis in the country started to become apparent in mid-April, when infection numbers started to surpass 200,000 a day.  Soon the government ordered new expanded lockdowns that had ...

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US Fuel Demand and Imports

May 7, 2021

In the past couple of years and thanks no less to a global pandemic, any market outlook contains the word “volatility” in generous amounts.  Analysts are always looking for ways to “anchor” a projection to indisputable data and sometimes we are indeed seeing that despite the volatility, the overarching story remains true to the outlook.  This week, we take a look at potential CPP import scenarios for the US ahead of a fast-approaching summer driving season.

The pandemic has had the entire world on lockdown with dire consequences for global oil demand.  Even now, we see that wave after wave ...

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Supply Scenarios and their Impact

April 30, 2021

We receive a lot of questions from colleagues and clients regarding the current state of the tanker market and, of course, the outlook we see for the short and mid-term.  In short, our analysis shows that the current tanker market is essentially in the hands of owners and their decisions on how to develop their fleets going forward.

To reach this finding, we looked at different tanker supply scenarios with the VLCC market as a reference, this time wanting to provide a simple visual that can tell a cohesive story.  In this analysis, demand and supply data in the VLCC ...

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Where do Vintage VLCCs Go?

April 23, 2021

There have been a few news articles lately discussing the strength of the secondhand VLCC market, in spite of overall VLCC earnings remaining very low in an oversupplied market.  This paradoxical market behavior is raising some very valid questions.  Who buys these VLCCs, what are they doing with them and why are they not being scrapped, especially now that iron ore supply chain volatility among other reasons has brought scrap prices to high levels? To answer these questions, we dove into our AIS and commercial transaction information to observe the “behavior” of VLCCs over the age of 15 that have ...

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Initial Findings from an EEXI Analysis on the VLCC Fleet

April 16, 2021

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) set forth its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Strategy in 2018 with the goal of reducing carbon intensity by 40% up to 2030 and by 50% up to 2050 from a 2008 baseline.  With this strategy, the IMO tightened the parameters of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI).  The EEDI refers to energy efficient ship design, setting the minimum required efficiency while leaving design and technology considerations to builders.  The EEDI applies to vessel being built or that will be built.

In November 2020, the IMO amended MARPOL Annex VI to include a new efficiency standard, the ...

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